Northeast India Under Threat as Himalayan Glacier Melt
The Hindu Kush Himalayan region, known as the “Third Pole”, is melting at an alarming rate. River expert Prof Nayan Sharma warns of dire consequences for Northeast India and Bangladesh,
As the world dithers over meaningful climate action, the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, often dubbed the “Third Pole”, is quietly but swiftly unravelling. With the largest concentration of frozen water on Earth after the Arctic and Antarctic, the HKH has become one of the hottest hot spots of global warming — both figuratively and literally. And if present trends continue unabated, the Northeast region of India, along with low-lying Bangladesh, could soon be in very deep water — quite literally.
Renowned river expert and former IIT Roorkee professor, Prof Nayan Sharma, has issued a stark warning. Speaking to The Assam Tribune, he underscored the accelerated melting of glaciers across the HKH and the dire consequences awaiting the densely populated Brahmaputra plains. “It’s not just a storm in a teacup,” said Prof Sharma. “What’s unfolding here is a full-blown climate emergency.”
Much like the Arctic, the Third Pole is warming faster than the global average. The IPCC’s AR4 report has already rung alarm bells: Himalayan glaciers are receding at a faster clip than any other region on Earth, with the potential to lose as much as 80% of their ice by 2035 if the current pace of warming continues. From 500,000 square kilometres of glacier cover, we could be left with a mere fifth of that — a vanishing act that will leave millions high and dry.
Drawing from his international research stint in the Austrian Alps, Prof Sharma noted that even there, glaciers are receding with astonishing speed. But in the HKH, the rate of retreat is even more alarming. “We’re staring down the barrel of water insecurity, increased floods, and infrastructure collapse,” he cautioned.
Climate Whiplash: From Deluge to Drought
Prof Sharma pointed out that the summer discharge of Himalayan rivers is projected to increase dramatically due to melting snow — a paradox of abundance leading to catastrophe. This surge would not only worsen erosion and flooding but also imperil critical infrastructure across the Brahmaputra Basin. “Bridges, irrigation canals, and dams — many of them over half a century old — are not fit for purpose in today’s climatic reality. They were built for another era,” he said. “A complete design review and retrofitting using modern technology is not just advisable, it’s imperative.”
Worse still, as glaciers retreat, the lean season — when the region depends on glacier melt for water — could see a dramatic drop in river flow. “The Brahmaputra could well turn into a trickle,” warned Sharma, “and agriculture, already on a knife-edge, could be pushed over the brink.”
He suggested converting ageing irrigation networks into Level-Top Canals — a climate-resilient approach that enables water storage within canals, acting as a buffer during dry spells.
Sediment Surge & Bridge Peril
More worrying is the predicted 50% increase in sediment concentration in the Brahmaputra by century’s end. This could be the final nail in the coffin for many of the region’s bridges, especially those with shallow pier foundations based on outdated hydrological models. “Most designs assume historical stream flow patterns — but climate change has rewritten the rulebook,” Sharma explained. “During floods, increased sediment load and intensified channel braiding could literally wash away the foundations.”
China’s Dam Gambit: A Geopolitical Time Bomb?
Adding to the region’s woes is the controversial Chinese mega-dam project in the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra (known as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet). While China claims it’s a run-of-the-river scheme, Sharma and other experts suspect otherwise. “Given the region’s high seismicity and fragile geology, the very idea of a mega-dam is asking for trouble,” he said.
The concerns are twofold. First, a sudden release of monsoon flows from the Chinese dam could overwhelm the Indian dam proposed at Yingkiong, leading to catastrophic downstream flooding. Second, dry season flows may be drastically reduced, as water is impounded upstream — a move that would devastate Assam’s already precarious water security.
“It’s not all doom and gloom,” he added cautiously. “India must plan the Yingkiong dam for large storage with sufficient spillway capacity. Advanced engineering solutions can cushion us against sudden water surges — natural or otherwise.”
Ticking Clocks and Unstable Ground
With the Eastern Himalayas already prone to earthquakes and tectonic instability, the prospect of large-scale infrastructure in such a zone becomes even more fraught. “We’re on thin ice — both geologically and metaphorically,” Prof Sharma said, grimly.
In sum, the HKH is melting faster than the global conscience can respond. While international summits hem and haw, and emission pledges gather dust, time is running out for India’s northeast and Bangladesh. The writing’s on the wall — or more aptly, in the riverbeds — and it’s time policymakers pulled their socks up.
Otherwise, what we’ll be left with is not just a trickle of regret, but a deluge of disaster.
This article is based on the expert comments of Prof Nayan Sharma as reported in The Assam Tribune by R Dutta Choudhury.
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