India China Water War
Glacial melting and competing dam projects on the Brahmaputra River are escalating tensions. The emerging India China water war threatens the region’s delicate balance and water security.
India’s plans to build the country’s biggest dam at a strategic site on the Brahmaputra river at Yingkiong in Arunachal Pradesh to deflect the water weaponizing strategy of China, may have grave consequences.
A new study by the Centre for Earth Sciences and Himalayan Studies (CESHS) has found evidence of rapid glacier retreat, sudden expansion of high altitude lakes that might trigger devastating flash floods in the Mago Cho sub-basin in western part of Arunachal Pradesh.
Even as New Delhi has been seized with a fast-track plan to construct its own dam in Upper Siang district to mitigate the negative effects of the world’s largest mega-dam project of China in Tibet, the latest CESHS revelation is certain to throw a spanner in the Indian government initiative.
Vital Significance of CESHS Report
The CESHS study conducted in collaboration with other institutions, has found that Arunachal Pradesh lost as many as 110 glaciers between 1988 and 2020, shrinking their total area by approximately 309.85 sq. km.
The National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR), IIT Roorkee, IIT Guwahati and other partner institutions are among the other collaborators.
This research highlights rapid glacial retreat, particularly in the Mago Chu basin, leading to increasing flood risk from expanding glacial lakes and increased fragmentation of larger glaciers at heights of 17,000 feet and above.
Since the glaciers in the said basin have been retreating rapidly, the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA), a critical indicator of glacial health, has already risen by around 137 meters, signifying an acute state of negative mass balance.
Since the glaciers have so far not been replenished with the required mass of ice, this has heightened the risk of dangerous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) during heavy rain or massive cloudbursts at the catchment areas of the lakes, the study has cautioned.
In fact, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh have witnessed an unprecedented and deadly devastation due to repeated cloudbursts this year which saw torrents of boulders and slush rushing down the valleys, defacing village after village from the surface. Nearly 400 people lost their lives due to this marauding calamity.
Accelerated Threat in Arunachal Pradesh
Glaciers in the Mago Chu basin, a key headwater for the Brahmaputra River, lost approximately 28.5 per cent of their area between 1988 and 2019, with some south-west facing glaciers losing nearly 50 per cent of their ice.
Secondly, some of the large glaciers are breaking into smaller or rather more unstable fragments, increasing their vulnerability to melt any moment and collapse.
Thirdly, the rapidity at which these glaciers have been melting has led to a spike in the number and area of the glacial lakes, triggering a significant threat of GLOFs.
The decline in ice cover has been accompanied by a dramatic growth in glacial lakes. In 1988, the basin had 15 lakes covering 0.71 sq km; by 2023, the number had swelled up to around 33, covering nearly 3 sq.km.
And among them, four have already been designated as ‘high risk’ by the National Management Disaster Authority.
And finally, in the event of an outburst of one glacial lake, it could lead to the release of flood waves exceeding 12,000 cubic meters per second, wiping villages and hydropower installations within minutes during its atrocious descent.
A thorough analysis of the satellite pictures of Sentinel-2 reveals that rivers that are fed by these lakes, might suddenly overtop their banks without providing any warning.
In fact, Sikkim was a victim of the disastrous impact of this GLOF in October, 2023 when the Lonak glacial lake suffered a vicious outburst; it saw gusts of water rushing down the icy slopes without any warning after a sudden cloudburst.
A river of mud, earth and tonnes of boulders and debris rained down on villages that lay on its way, killing several people and wiping hydro-installations out beyond trace.
Sources quoting the CESHS director Tana Tage said that winter snowfall in 2024 has been far from adequate in this region covering the glacial lakes as a result of which they have been losing their natural recharge system.
Thus, the CESHS is considering setting up a permanent base camp for long-term cryosphere monitoring and keeping a tab on the frozen freshwater reserves in the region.
The Spanner in New Delhi’s Scheme
According to an official document, New Delhi has conducted an initial assessment of the likely impact when the world’s largest hydropower dam in Tibet just before the Yarlung Zangbo river crosses into India, would go on steam sometime end of 2030.
The Sino-Indian latest bonhomie notwithstanding, New Delhi has been quietly assessing the fact that its long time strategic rival could weaponize its control of the river which originates in the Angsi Glacier, and is known as the Siang and Brahmaputra in India.
The Brahmaputra flows for 918 km in India out of its total length of 2,880 km. While nearly seventy five per cent of the water that flows in the Brahmaputra comes from catchment areas in India, the major part of the water in the non-monsoon season is received from melting of glaciers in Tibet.
China’s move to store or divert the river water in Brahmaputra, it is open knowledge, may challenge the water security of India’s North-East region and Bangladesh.
Hence, the Indian government’s latest measure to hunt a safe site close to the Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Dam is fraught with serious risk. The local tribes in Arunachal Pradesh are vehemently against any new dam construction.
There have been fierce and occasionally violent instances of resistance from residents there; because they fear their villages will be submerged and their way of life destroyed by any dam that might come up in the vicinity.
The global climate change and warming of the ice belt coupled with reshaping of glacial maps in the Himalayan region would be posing serious threats to any major construction work in the sub-Himalayan region.
The risks of the downstream settlements are grave. Science alone cannot save lives; wanton constructions fuelled by mindless measures could hasten Doom’s Day sooner than expected.
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