India Pakistan ceasefire follows Operation Sindoor
Close on the heels of the Pahalgam terror attack, India’s “Operation Sindoor” led to a ceasefire, exposing Pakistan’s hush hush lobbying efforts & demonstrating India’s military prowess. This analysis endeavours to explore the aftermath & a fragile peace currently lurking in the air.
The hydra-headed monster has finally been subdued, leaving a veil of uncertainty for a possible future flare up. In the aftermath of a bitterly bruised Pahelgam wound, India might have, for the time being, agreed to a ceasefire in the wake of the spectacular “Operation Sindoor”, thanks to a volley of surreptitious lobbying by Pakistan at varied (international) doorsteps besides its angry neighbour.
Where the heart of the Hydra is anybody’s guess; but that the three wings of the Indian army have put paid to the monster’s resources and fodder in the four-day whirlwind yet calibrated response to the Pahelgam mayhem, is for the entire world to accept. India’s sworn enemy was completely taken unawares by an astute art of deception woven by Team India! It’s not for nothing that the United States, touted as the world top notch superpower, took an unscheduled about turn from ‘none-of-our-business’(the latest round of Indo-Pak arms blitzkrieg) to a sort of uncalled for mediation between the two belligerent nations.
India’s slow yet resolved response
That India would avenge the dastardly Pahelgam terror attack, went without saying. The sponsors of the attack across the border were waiting with baited breath for the date and time of the response. The terror masterminds had meanwhile received some unsolicited support from the Western media (Reuters, BBC, The New York Times et al) who fought shy of branding the Pahelgam carnage as a terror attack. The Western media sought refuge in such terms as ‘Militants’ or ‘Deadly Violence in Kashmir’ so on and so forth as per their known agenda.
It was left to the White House in the US to issue a statement to correct the New York Times which described the Pahelgam bloodbath as a militant attack. The US statement made a bold correction “….not a militant attack; it was a TERROR attack”. Vladimir Putin of Russia, Emanuel Macron of France and even the Turkish foreign ministry had followed suit later, labelling it as terrorism and terror attack.
India’s determined yet sudden calibrated response on the inaugural day of the four-day conflict took the terror collaborators and their Islamabad-based mentors by surprise and left them aghast at the precision strikes deep inside the Pak territory. It preceded an announcement by Team India to implement a mock war drill across the nation which left the Shehbaz Sharif regime rooted to the spot and groping for an alibi.
The Aerial Dogfight
Amidst claims and counter-claims by the belligerent nations, Western defence experts and their Chinese counterparts had keenly been watching the aerial dogfight that was believed to have taken place in the brief four-day vicious conflict. According to reports emerging, shares of Dassault Aviation of France, the manufacturer of the Rafale fighter jets, took a hit after the ‘untested’ China-made J-10C fighter jets claimed to have downed one of Indian Air Force’s cutting edge 4.5th generation Rafale fighter aircraft on the inaugural day of the attack. And subsequently, the stock prices of the Chinese manufacturer of J-10C spiralled.
While India conceded ‘some operational losses that are inevitable during such fierce combat’, the IAF declined to officially confirm the loss of a Rafale jet apart from two other warplanes as being claimed by Pakistan. The latest aerial combat was kind of a crucial test of battle strength for both the French and Chinese fighter jets; the rumoured downing of a IAF Rafale rattled not only its manufacturer but also other potential buyers including Taiwan.
Hence, IAF, it was being alleged by the Western media, was advised by Dassault Aviation, to ‘lie low’ in the prevailing circumstances and allow the manufacturer little room to make a detailed prognosis, leading to the downing of the aircraft. If the Chinese weaponry like J-10 jets and PL-15 missiles, hitherto untested in such battles as this, could go one up against their Western counterparts, it could reasonably trigger deep chinks of worry among their manufacturers in the West.
The Ceasefire fiasco
The verbal shots being fired from across the border by Pak army chief Asim Munir and his close aides like Lt General Muhammad Asim Malik and Lt General Nauman Zakaria during the height of the conflict were a perfect eyewash to ensure the supply of critical oxygen to adrenaline hormones of the Pakistanis so that they didn’t suffer from any dose of demoralisation.
However, the overwhelming factor that hurt the Pak military apparatchik below the belt was the stunning performance of ‘Sudarshan Chakra’, the Russian air defence battery (S-400 Triumfs), the Indian-made Aakash and the Israel-made suicide drones and Barak 8 missiles. These multi-layered air defence systems have successfully repulsed scores of Pakistani aerial attacks over four successive nights.
A well-integrated and planned combo of these lethal weaponry tore through the Chinese anti-drone equipment acquired and later deployed by the Pakistan army. The nail in the coffin was dug when an Indian missile, probably ‘Bramhos’ struck the Pak air base deep inside Punjab and left it in a heap of rubbles.
First, the precision strikes on terror infrastructure at nine locations followed by piercing raids at air bases injected an unprecedented chill down the Pak army honchos’ spine; the US too quickly shrugged off its ‘none-of-our-business’ posture having watched with alarm the spectacular performance of the Russian air defence units.
Both China and the US were caught off-guard as India literally made a mockery of the array of weapons supplied by these twin superpowers to Pakistan. The US defence experts in particular, must be debating now as to why Ukraine has been sent reeling under the Russian air and missile strikes despite the presence of massive US and Western air defence batteries.
The Chinese PL 15 air-to-air missile failed to hit the targets in India; wreckage of long range rockets, loiter munitions, unmanned aerial systems and the Turkish-origin YIHA Songar drones were shown by the Indian army spokespersons during the news briefing. “Targeting our airfields and key and crucial logistics is way too tough,” claimed Indian Lt General Rajiv Ghai.
Be that as it may, a careful analysis of the ceasefire proposal and its expeditious implementation would reveal at least four takeaways, much though Mr Donald Trump may tout the same being his credit. India made it clear that the proposal for ceasefire was initiated over phone from Pakistan which was not denied by the US president.
Secondly, the nuclear blackmailing by Pakistan had little takers, let alone India. Thirdly, Islamabad would have to now deal with what is the new normal for New Delhi as every terror attack will follow strategic bombing of targets in Pakistan. The last but not the least, the Indus Water treaty would continue to be kept in abeyance and India would solely determine when the same can be revived.
Interestingly, neither the United States nor China could prod the Narendra Modi government to sing a tune for truce as ‘willed and composed’ by them in the quickly-drafted ceasefire agreement.
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